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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.